Donald Trump will not annex Greenland

The below piece appeared in CityAM’s Notebook several days before President Trump climbed down on his bid to annex Greenland at Davos.

On a recent client call, I argued that the massive US naval deployment off Venezuela for a three-hour extraction looked more like President Trump searching for a quick win rather than a war. Therefore, until American ships are moving towards Nuuk, I tend not to take talk of a Greenland annexation too seriously.

It was a difficult call then and it remains a difficult one now, but it is, unpopularly, what I happen to think.

I know this is an intensely emotional issue for many, but this is generally how President Trump negotiates. When he is looking for a political win, he has a standard playbook. He threatens the most extreme scenario to focus minds and then raises prices to force his counter parties to come closer to his terms and offer something up they think he wants. He then pockets the win before repeating the process over again or moving on to a new target.

I am a firm believer in NATO as a force for good and in the United States’ alliances as a power multiplier. However, I don’t think pointing out to President Trump that an attack on Denmark would end NATO will work because this is the very leverage Trump is using. Highlighting this will just make him more confident.

Instead, the Danish government should try three options to diffuse the situation.

First, sign an investment agreement to give the US preferential access to Greenland’s strategic minerals, like what Ukraine did to unlock US funding for their war effort. Even if there is one already in place, update it and have an elaborate signing ceremony.

Second, offer to pay for an additional US military base in Greenland or name an existing NATO one after President Trump, which is what the Polish government did during Trump’s first term. “Fort Trump” was never built but US troops remained in Poland.

Finally, find him a new focus. Canadian PM Carney’s recent cosying up to Chinese President Jinping ahead of the USMCA FTA renegotiations is an obvious idea.