Reform won the local elections — now what?
Local elections were held across the UK on Thursday 1 May, with final results coming in on Friday evening. These elections marked PM Starmer’s first major political test since the July 2024 general election. Our view is below.
Snapshot:
Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats were the clear winners in the local elections. Reform surged from zero to 677 councillors—largely at the Conservatives’ expense—while also securing a fifth MP via a by-election and winning two regional mayoralties. The Lib Dems nearly doubled their total to 370 councillors.
Labour lost two-thirds of its 287 contested seats, ceding ground to Reform in the North and to the Liberal Democrats and Greens in the South. The Conservatives suffered the heaviest losses, shedding 679 councillors, mainly to Reform, and retained just 317 councillors.
Prime Minister Starmer now faces a balancing act: maintaining a hard line on immigration to counter Reform’s appeal, pursuing closer EU market access to appease Lib Dem voters, and managing resistance to welfare cuts amid fiscal constraint amongst his own MPs. He will likely further raise taxes on business and the wealthy at the Autumn Budget.
Our view:
Reform has a realistic chance to win power at a general election. At the last general election, Reform placed second in nearly a quarter of Labour’s now 403 seats. Initially welcomed by Labour strategists as a useful splitter of the right-wing vote, under Nigel Farage MP’s leadership, Reform has filled the ideological and media vacuum left by a Conservative Party in disarray. Farage has successfully cast himself as the de facto leader of the opposition, and voters appear to be responding. Reform’s test will now shift from rhetoric to delivery, as their councillors face scrutiny on their ability to govern locally. Their performance will influence whether Reform matures into a fully viable national party.
Labour faces a strategic reckoning as they balance their appeal to Reform and Lib Dem voters. Although media attention has centred on Reform’s rise, the Liberal Democrats also posted strong gains—doubling their councillors, eating up Labour and Conservative votes along the way. Starmer now faces conflicting pressures: one bloc of strategists will urge a hardening stance on immigration, cultural issues, and fiscal expansion to reclaim Reform-leaning voters; the other will advocate for closer EU ties to consolidate the liberal centre. Starmer is likely to pursue a multi-track strategy—talk tough on immigration in the press while softening the ground for further tax rises on the wealthy and business at the Autumn Budget, and formalise economic cooperation with Europe through official channels.
The Conservatives lack an electoral identity. The Conservatives have no core message and are struggling with voter credibility. Farage has outflanked them on cultural issues, and their economic credibility has been eroded after 14 years of rising taxes and reducing market access to key trading partners. The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch MP, has not yet defined a compelling narrative for the party, but her leadership is unlikely to be challenged soon—more due to diminished parliamentary numbers than internal confidence. Robert Jenrick MP, the shadow Justice Secretary and tipped alternative, is expected to wait for a more opportune moment. His likely strategy is to allow Badenoch to fail gradually, then challenge her 12 - 18 months before the next general election as he positions himself as the Conservative Party’s answer to Reform.