Six things we learned during Westminster's holiday reception season
Hello and happy holiday season. As is our annual tradition, we have attended approximately twenty holiday events and receptions throughout Westminster over the past few weeks, spanning the political spectra from left to right. These events provide a handy barometer for how the political ecosystem currently feels. With that in mind, please find our six observations below.
Our view:
Labour continues to struggle to defend and define itself
Westminster is preparing for President Trump’s return; Labour is not
Conservatives are optimistic but nowhere close to ready for power again
Much of the media are tired of Labour’s holding lines and lack of vision after five months
Reform lacks political operatives in Westminster
The Lib Dems do not have a brand or rallying cry
Our wider view:
Labour is struggling to defend and define itself
Labour’s political and media operatives are struggling to define, articulate, and sell their vision to the Westminster bubble, usually the first point of contact for new policy ideas. Basic questions, such as who are Labour’s champions in business or what is the government’s guiding principle(s), prompt defensiveness, tetchiness, and sometimes a departure from the event itself. The trend that we have previously written about, where Labour’s leadership and insiders seek comfort in only speaking to themselves, seems to be further entrenching itself following the departure of Sue Gray and several special advisors from her faction. Many special advisors and junior ministers seem to be locked into inertia for fear they will fall foul of the PM’s preferences. Continued media pressure, a new poll showing Reform ahead of Labour in the polls, and a Conservative Party no longer focused on electing a new party leader will all add further weight to this trend in the new year. We expect a reshuffle within the first six months of 2025, which should help focus minds.
Westminster is prepping for Trump; Labour isn’t
Most political organisations that held events ahead of the holidays had already begun to position themselves for the return of President Trump. There is a notable lack of hysteria this time around, however, and there is much more of a debate about how the government should act. Roughly half of Westminster thinks the UK should support Trump publicly and criticise privately, and the other half believe PM Starmer should minimally engage with the President and focus instead on rebuilding the UK’s relationship with the EU.
PM Starmer has made several key decisions in recent weeks that indicate an initial preference for the latter option i.e., to “look through” a second Trump Presidency and focus on the EU. First, he has removed his two foreign affairs special advisors, both of whom were well qualified and had wide international and domestic networks and has not filled their roles, nor indicated he intends to ahead of Trump’s inauguration on 20 January. Second, the appointment of his national security advisor, Jonathan Powell, seems more about shoring up his centrist credentials amongst the Labour party’s influencers and civil service rather than bringing in US specialist knowledge. Third, one of his first international engagements has been with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which came on the heels of President Trump’s election win. Fourth, Starmer continues to publicly and privately press for more ‘dynamic alignment’ with the EU’s trading rules, in effect foregoing the idea of an US/UK FTA.
The approach has elements of merit to it. Most Presidential second terms tend to be effectively only two years long, as the first six months is consumed with political appointments and legislative wrangling with Congress, while the last twelve to eighteen months is spent on the election for the next President, limiting the sitting President’s capabilities.
Conservatives are optimistic but noncommittal
After 15 years in power, most Conservative politicians, advisors, and operatives are still recovering from their electoral loss in July. There is, however, a clear sense among many Conservative strategists that Labour’s first months in power have been definitional in the electorate’s mind and will cripple them at the next election. They believe most non-diehard Labour voters will see their taxes go up but may not have yet seen their public services improve, opening a space for Conservative gains. There is still wide and deep concern, however, that Reform, while not a party making dramatic waves in Westminster, is gaining further traction amongst the electorate and will split the Right’s vote to the benefit of Labour, which many view as how Labour won in July. Uniquely, many party operatives and grandees expect Kemi to lead the party in to the next general election. Although currently denied by both sides, an electoral pact at the next election between Reform and the Conservatives is becoming more of a distinct possibility.
The media is tiring of Labour’s holding lines and lack of vision
Journalists are becoming increasingly frustrated about Labour’s engagement. Although different to the Conservatives, which many journalists felt had run out of new ideas by PM Sunak’s term, Labour appears to be indecisive and paralysed. Many media advisors are apparently unwilling to do anything other than walk the party line, limiting scoops and stories and frustrating the media’s attempts to write compelling narratives of Labour’s story. Even journalists at Labour-leaning outlets have expressed consternation. The main beneficiaries have been tabloid journalists, who have been able to feel these vacuums with scandal stories and will likely continue to do so as Labour’s leadership continues to learn how to communicate its vision to the media.
Reform still lacks working level operatives
Although Reform is in the ascendancy, with strong polling numbers and notable defections from the Conservatives, namely Lee Anderson MP, former MP Andrea Jenkyns, and Tim Montgomerie, founder of Conservative Home, it still lacks working level operatives in Westminster. Although there are five Reform MPs, former advisors and operatives in the Brexit Party and UKIP, the progenitor parties to Reform, have opted out of the political world for the time being, preferring to stay in the private sector. Many of those same operatives view the polling numbers skeptically and Farage’s governance style as too chaotic to run functional national election campaigns, a view at odds with both Conservative and Labour strategists.
The Lib Dems don’t have a brand or a rallying cry
The Lib Dems have not really figured out how to straddle or appeal to their slice of the electorate. Although they successfully ate into the votes of both Conservatives and Labour in July, this seems to have been mainly disaffection rather than enthusiasm for fairly bland or vague policies. The Lib Dems, for all intents and purposes, are still a one man show, headed by Sir Ed Davey MP, and should be thought of more as a campaign vessel rather than a fully fledged opposition party.